Research

Work in Progress

• “Should I Mail or Should I Go: Insights From a One-Time All-Postal Runoff Election” (with V. Lindlacher)
  [Latest Version]
  Abstract: We investigate how reducing information costs due to forced experimentation with postal voting affects voting behavior. Leveraging a natural experiment during the Bavarian 2020 Mayoral Elections, we employ an event study design. We find a transitory increase in total turnout and a persistent substitution from in-person to postal voting. Notably, municipalities with a higher turnout in the past show a larger effect. Investigating the distribution of the information costs shows an age gradient with the highest information costs for the oldest age group. The conservative governing party (CSU) gains persistently from higher postal turnout and other conservative parties’ in-person voters.

• “Public Service Failures and Voter Participation: Evidence from Court-Validated Electoral Disruptions”
  [Latest Version]
  Abstract: This paper studies how administrative failures on election day affect long-run political participation. I exploit court-validated disruptions during Berlin’s 2021 elections—such as ballot shortages and excessive queues—as a natural experiment. Using an event-study design across nine elections, I show that turnout in affected precincts fell by 1.2 percent and remained depressed for at least 4 years. Effects are largest among young voters and residents with migration backgrounds. Survey evidence suggests both trust erosion and disrupted civic habits. The findings underscore that competent electoral administration is essential for democratic inclusion and should be treated as core public infrastructure.

• “From Forced Moves to Partisan Shifts: Political Assimilation After Climate-Induced Displacement”
  [Conceptualization]

Policy Papers

• “Faktoren von Familiengründung, Kinderlosigkeit und Kinderreichtum in Ostdeutschland”
  (with K. Heisig and T. Scheurer), 2023, ifo Dresden Studie 89
• “Was Ersteltern von Personen ohne Kinder in Ostdeutschland unterscheidet”
  (with K. Heisig), 2023, ifo Dresden berichtet 31
• “Faktoren der Kinderlosigkeit in Ostdeutschland”
  (with K. Heisig and T. Scheurer), 2022, ifo Dresden berichtet 29